Concept controlling model for arresting epidemics, including COVID-19

Abstract

This article focuses on the assessment of the intensity of the epidemic process and the proportionate intensity of control by using mathematical modeling. In this work we studied the specifics of the parameters of the infectious and epidemic process, as well as control parameters. Formulas for controlling the epidemic process for calculating the critical levels of influence (interventions) and the time to achieve the result are obtained. A concept controlling model has been developed for both new and returning infectious diseases. The adequacy of the model based on real data, as well as examples of intervention campaigns are presented.